In each case the US response was hesitant and minimal, emboldening Tehran. She faulted Trump's inconsistent responses last year after the Revolutionary Guards shot down two US drones, allegedly damaged multiple tankers in the Gulf, and allegedly launched missiles on Saudi oil installations. "They're going to be planning strategically, investing in ways to inflict pain on the United States."įor effective deterrence, Thomas said, the Trump administration lacks a coherent message that Tehran can make sense of - what response it can expect from the United States to what provocative actions - as well as a back channel to communicate, like previous administrations had. Soleimani's death in a US drone strike last Friday "has definitely changed the tone of tensions going forward," she said. Netanyahu warns of 'resounding blow' if Iran attacks Israelīut that is "just the beginning," said Kaleigh Thomas, a Middle East security analyst at the Center for a New American Security. In the short run tensions could ease after Iran retaliated for Revolutionary Guards Commander Qasem Soleimani's death last week by firing 12 ballistic missiles at two US bases in Iraq, causing damage but killing no one. "I believe that we've restored a level of deterrence with them," he said.īut Washington security analysts say it is far from certain that Tehran has been deterred from further attacks on the United States and its allies, and that it might not be long before it challenges President Donald Trump again. US Defense Secretary Mark Esper said Wednesday that the US strike that killed a top Iranian general had restored credibility to the US threat to Tehran to restrain itself militarily.
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